Engineering Innovation Podcast and Radio Series

Predicting Oscar Winners

PostedMarch 5, 2006

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Randy Atkins:  Iain Pardoe, a University of Oregon professor, teaches a difficult statistical model to students by showing its power to predict Oscar winners.  Using data from the last thirty years, like a nominee's previous honors, …  
Iain Pardoe:  …it's predicted the Best Director 93% of the time, and the Best Picture 77% of the time, and then Best Actor and Best Actress also 77% of the time.

Randy Atkins:  Pardoe says the model can't yet deal with less tangible factors, like a movie's "buzz" or a sentimental favorite, but may shed light on…

Iain Pardoe:  …how fair the Oscars are and whether they are truly indicative of artistic merit.

Randy Atkins:  With the National Academy of Engineering, Randy Atkins, WTOP Radio.