Engineering Innovation Podcast and Radio Series

Oscar Model

PostedFebruary 22, 2009

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Randy Atkins: Iain Pardoe, a University of Oregon professor, teaches a difficult statistical model to students by showing its power to predict Oscar winners.  Using data from the last thirty years, like a nominee’s previous honors…  

 Iain Pardoe: It’s predicted the Best Director 93% of the time.  And the Best Picture 77% of the time and then Best Actor and Best Actress also 77% of the time.

Randy Atkins: Pardoe says the model can’t yet deal with less tangible factors, like a movie’s “buzz” or a sentimental favorite, but may shed light on…

Iain Pardoe: …how fair the Oscars are and whether they are truly indicative of artistic merit.

Randy Atkins:  With the National Academy of Engineering, Randy Atkins, 103 point 5 F-M and WTOP-dot-com.